Insights & News

Published analysis and news from SwissForecast.

• 2026-08-11 The Industrial Ceiling of the Oil Price — Every oil rally ends where industry stops paying. That point is no longer set in Europe or North America — it is set in Asia and Africa, where non-OECD economies now consume nearly 60 percent of global crude. For construction suppliers, this is the most reliable early indicator of when a cost cycle turns.
• 2026-08-04 EU Net Migration 2023–2024: What Population Growth Means for Housing Demand — The EU recorded net migration of 2.3 million in 2024 — the highest since records began. SwissForecast analyses the regional distribution and implications for residential construction demand.
• 2026-08-04 ECB Interest Rate Cycle 2022–2025: Impact on European Construction Markets — Between July 2022 and September 2023, the ECB raised its key interest rate from 0% to 4.5%. SwissForecast analyses what this meant for construction demand, renovation activity and material procurement costs.
• 2026-07-24 Demographic Wealth Risk: What the Baby Boomer Exit Means for Real Estate and Construction — In many German districts, far more people are retiring over the next few years than young workers are entering the labour market. What this means for real estate markets and the construction supply industry — and why looking at Japan changes the debate.
• 2026-05-27 Why I Would Invest in Zurich and Munich — When considering the long-term stability of European real estate markets, the decisive question is which cities can develop self-sustaining prosperity cycles. Zurich and Munich stand out as resilient quality metropolises.
• 2026-03-16 The Iran Oil Price Shock: What It Means for European Material Prices — The US-Israeli strikes on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz blockade have rattled energy markets. But how much of the price surge is fundamental — and how much is speculation?
• 2026-03-11 Housing Affordability Index (HAI) 2026 — The latest Housing Affordability Index finds that some of the world's wealthiest nations are also its least affordable places to live. The full ranking will be presented at the University of St. Gallen on May 13, 2026.
• 2025-01-15 Higher Key Rates, Higher Inflation? An Analysis of the Controversy Around Fiscal Theory of the Price Level — The conventional wisdom holds that higher interest rates combat inflation. But what if the opposite is true?
• 2025-01-12 Europe's Climate Policy Reversal? Implications for the Construction Industry — European climate policy is at a crossroads. Political and economic pressures are leading to a rethinking of ambitious targets.
• 2025-01-10 The Counterplayers to the Silk Road: Are the Alternatives to the BRI Credible? — China's Belt and Road Initiative has prompted Western powers and regional actors to develop alternative infrastructure initiatives.
• 2025-01-08 Asia's Tigers in the Dragon's Shadow: The Balancing Act Toward China's Silk Road — In the direct neighborhood of rising China, the Asian tiger and tiger cub states stand at the epicenter of the Belt and Road Initiative.
• 2025-01-05 Germany and the New Silk Road: Between Cooperation and Confrontation — Hardly any country in Europe is as deeply entangled in the geoeconomic tension field of China's New Silk Road (BRI) as Germany.
• 2025-01-03 The Digital Silk Road: China's Grasp for Global Tech Dominance — While the physical infrastructure projects of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) – ports, railways, and roads – attract worldwide attention, a digital expansion unfolds in parallel.
• 2024-12-28 Banks and Interest Rate Policy: Between Economic Rationality and Strategic Inflation Rhetoric — In the last five ECB rate cuts between December 2024 and June 2025, bank representatives repeatedly expressed concerns about persistent inflation risks.
• 2024-12-20 Oil Price Shock? Impact on Inflation and Supply Chains — A rise in oil prices to $90 per barrel would have far-reaching effects on the global economy.
• 2024-12-15 Analog vs. Algorithm: Gen Z and the New Longing for Authenticity — Recently, I inherited a 37-year-old Mercedes from my grandfather. Generation Z is rediscovering analog technologies.
• 2024-12-10 From ECB Policy to Construction Financing: Transmission Mechanisms and Mortgage Rate Forecasts — The ECB's key interest rate is a central monetary policy instrument. How does ECB policy affect construction financing?
• 2024-12-05 Return Migration or Long-Term Integration? The Future of Ukrainian Refugees in Germany and Switzerland — Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Germany and Switzerland have provided refuge to hundreds of thousands of people.