Return Migration or Long-Term Integration? The Future of Ukrainian Refugees in Germany and Switzerland

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Germany and Switzerland have provided refuge to hundreds of thousands of people.

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<div class="sf-perspective"> <h3>SwissForecast Perspective</h3> <p>Migration reshapes housing markets — and with them construction demand and material prices. In the optimistic scenario, up to 250,000 housing units become available in Germany; in the pessimistic one, demand increases by 40,000 units. For construction suppliers: scenario planning is essential.</p> </div> <p>Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Germany and Switzerland have provided refuge to hundreds of thousands of people. But how might the situation evolve in three years if peace in Ukraine becomes a reality?</p> <div class="sf-data"> <p><strong>250,000 vs. +40,000 housing units</strong></p> <p>The range between optimistic (release) and pessimistic scenario (additional demand) for Germany alone. A difference of nearly 300,000 housing units — with direct implications for building material demand.</p> </div> <h2>Scenario 1 — Optimistic: Large Return Wave</h2> <p>In a stable peace scenario, up to 70% of Ukrainian refugees would return. For Germany, this means approximately 750,000 returnees; in Switzerland, it could be up to 45,000. Key drivers include strong homeland ties, family reunification, and active support for Ukraine's reconstruction.</p> <h3>Implications</h3> <ul> <li><strong>Housing market relief:</strong> In Germany, up to 250,000 housing units could become available; in Switzerland, around 15,000–20,000.</li> <li><strong>Opportunities:</strong> Easing of local housing markets, reduction of social challenges, active return policy.</li> </ul> <h3>Germany Details</h3> <ul> <li>Return rate: approx. 70% (~750,000 persons)</li> <li>Remaining refugees: 300,000–400,000 persons</li> <li>Housing market effect: Release of approx. 250,000 housing units</li> </ul> <h3>Switzerland Details</h3> <ul> <li>Return rate: approx. 75% (~45,000 persons)</li> <li>Remaining refugees: approx. 15,000 persons</li> <li>Housing market effect: Release of approx. 15,000–20,000 housing units</li> </ul> <h2>Scenario 2 — Pessimistic: Long-Term Integration</h2> <div class="sf-note"> <p>From the perspective of global inequality dynamics: migration flows follow economic gradients. If Ukraine remains economically unstable, refugees will stay where incomes are higher — regardless of political declarations of intent. From this perspective, the pessimistic scenario has a higher base probability.</p> </div> <h3>Germany Details</h3> <ul> <li>Return rate: 10–20% (~100,000–200,000 persons)</li> <li>Remaining refugees: approx. 900,000–1,000,000 persons</li> <li>Additional immigration: 100,000–200,000 (family reunification/eastern Ukraine)</li> <li>Housing market effect: Additional demand of approx. 40,000 housing units</li> </ul> <h3>Switzerland Details</h3> <ul> <li>Return rate: 10–20% (~6,000–12,000 persons)</li> <li>Remaining refugees: approx. 55,000–60,000 persons</li> <li>Additional immigration: approx. 5,000–10,000 (family reunification/eastern Ukraine)</li> <li>Housing market effect: Additional demand of several thousand housing units</li> </ul> <h2>Key Measures</h2> <ul> <li>Active support for return and integration</li> <li>Long-term housing strategies and labor market integration</li> <li>Cooperation with Ukraine on reconstruction</li> </ul> <h2>What Does This Mean for Policy and Society?</h2> <p>Both countries must prepare for different scenarios and respond flexibly. The future depends heavily on developments in Ukraine. Preparation for both scenarios is crucial to seize opportunities and master challenges.</p> <p>In the optimistic scenario, the housing market could experience significant relief, while the pessimistic scenario brings long-term integration challenges and additional housing demand. Germany and Switzerland should develop flexible strategies that support both voluntary return and long-term integration measures for remaining refugees.</p> <div class="sf-perspective"> <h3>Procurement Takeaway</h3> <p>Construction suppliers in Germany and Switzerland should factor both scenarios into their sales planning. In the return scenario, housing demand drops regionally — especially in metropolitan areas with high refugee populations. In the stay scenario, demand for social housing rises, increasing need for basic building materials (concrete, steel, insulation).</p> </div>

Published

2024-12-05